Freight market update - 5 March 2025

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• The deployed capacity on the Asia to Latin America trade lane has more than doubled on a quarterly basis over the past three years.

• According to MDS Transmodal data, deployed capacity surpassed 2 million TEUs in the first quarter.

• An Ocean Network Express (ONE) spokesperson stated that the ocean carrier will introduce newbuild vessels on its Asia-West Coast South America service in early March.

• The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) forecasts a 5% increase in air cargo demand for 2025.

• This projection aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate of 3.3% global GDP growth for 2025-2026.

• Hughes cited Xeneta data showing that load factors in the Asia-Pacific region are around 80%, indicating that aircraft are operating near full capacity.

• The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has ratified a new six-year master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

• ILA President Harold Daggett described the $35 billion deal as historic.

• China dominates the global shipbuilding market, controlling two-thirds of it, while the U.S. holds just 1%.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• The deployed capacity on the Asia to Latin America trade lane has more than doubled on a quarterly basis over the past three years.
• According to MDS Transmodal data, deployed capacity surpassed 2 million TEUs in the first quarter.
• Comparing Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, capacity grew by 20% year-over-year.
• This rapid expansion is driven by the rise of Asian manufacturing in Latin America, especially in Mexico, as companies seek new production hubs.
• To meet the increasing demand, carriers are deploying larger vessels and expanding routes.
• An Ocean Network Express (ONE) spokesperson stated that the ocean carrier will introduce newbuild vessels on its Asia-West Coast South America service in early March.
• These new vessels will be up to 50% larger than previous ones.
• The spokesperson added that the larger newbuilds would likely connect Busan, Shanghai, and Ningbo with Ensenada and Manzanillo in Mexico, as well as Buenaventura (Colombia), Guayaquil (Ecuador), and Callao (Peru).
• Evergreen and Cosco expanded their Asia-South America West Coast 5 (WSA5) service in early February.
• Previously focused on Mexico, the route now includes ports in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
• The new vessels will also enhance reefer capacity.
• The ONE spokesperson mentioned that this expansion will support the growing perishables trade in meat, fish, and fruit between China and South America, as well as on North-South routes.
• Spot rates continued to decline in late February, with overall utilization slightly above 80%.
• Some adjustments were made to Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on long-term contracts.
• Port congestion remains a challenge at multiple U.S. ports.
• There has been a rapid recovery in capacity following Chinese New Year (CNY), with demand also rising.
• Space availability has improved compared to pre-CNY levels.
• February saw mixed rate movements, with some extensions and selective reductions.
• General Rate Increases (GRIs) have been announced for March, with certain carriers implementing price hikes.
• Overall vessel capacity is expected to grow by 24.1% once all new service loops are fully operational.
• Average vessel sizes will increase from 9,833 TEU to 11,332 TEU.
• Some service loops do not yet have a full roster of vessels, leading to schedule gaps.
• The traditional peak season has been delayed due to weaker-than-expected demand.
• Lower grape harvest exports have notably impacted shipping volumes.
• India has announced new shipping infrastructure initiatives.
• Plans include the launch of a domestically owned container carrier.

Turkey → North America

• The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed fees on Chinese-built vessels entering U.S. ports.
• Fees could reach up to $1.5 million per port call for Chinese-built ships and $1 million for operators of these vessels.
• Public comments on the proposal are open until March 24, after which a final decision will be made.
• Most ocean-going vessels would likely pay the maximum fee based on their net tonnage, according to Jefferies.
• Container shipping would be the hardest hit, as these vessels make multiple port calls.
• A $1.5 million fee on a 10,000 TEU ship calling in the U.S. would add $150 per TEU or $300 per FEU.
• On the China-Los Angeles route, rates could rise from $3,000 to $3,300 per FEU.
• Dutch bank ING warned of potential ripple effects on supply chains, investor confidence, and global trade.
• Increased uncertainty could lead to unreliable arrivals, new disruptions, and higher costs for businesses.
• China dominates the global shipbuilding market, controlling two-thirds of it, while the U.S. holds just 1%.
• The previous U.S. administration engaged with Korean and Japanese shipbuilders to revive American shipbuilding.
• The current administration has taken a tougher approach, imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
• A Hartland Shipping report suggests that making “credible forecasts” on supply-demand balances is now nearly impossible due to ongoing geopolitical and economic shifts.
• Northern European ports are experiencing strikes and slowdowns, disrupting key terminals.
• Rotterdam, one of Europe’s busiest ports, is facing ongoing industrial action, causing delays and skipped port calls.
• Further disruptions are expected, ranging from slowdowns to full-scale strikes.
• Le Havre is also impacted, with dockworkers staging multiple stoppages over pension reforms.
• Congestion in North European ports continues to cause significant delays for shippers.
• Delays range from 5-9 days in Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Felixstowe.
• At Rotterdam and Antwerp, transshipments are being limited to prevent terminals from halting operations.
• Felixstowe’s performance is improving, but delays persist at 2-5 days in Southampton, Zeebrugge, and Le Havre.

North America → Turkey

• The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) forecasts a 5% increase in air cargo demand for 2025.
• This projection aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate of 3.3% global GDP growth for 2025-2026.
• TIACA’s Director General, Glyn Hughes, attributes this growth to economic stability, rising e-commerce, and an expanding middle class driving international trade.
• Hughes cited Xeneta data showing that load factors in the Asia-Pacific region are around 80%, indicating that aircraft are operating near full capacity.
• Despite the positive outlook, Hughes warned that political developments and policy changes pose growing risks.
• Tariffs and trade barriers add to these challenges, potentially weakening consumer confidence and impacting demand.
• A shift toward ocean shipping could further hinder air cargo growth, especially if commercial transits resume through the Suez Canal.
• However, uncertainties surrounding shipping in the Red Sea region remain a concern.
• Ongoing restrictions on Russian airspace are expected to continue, limiting available flight routes.
• For e-commerce shippers, uncertainties persist regarding the U.S. de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports.
• Hughes highlighted a potential regulation that could require additional shipment details, increasing costs and administrative burdens.
• The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has ratified a new six-year master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).
• Nearly 99% of ILA’s 45,000 registered members voted in favor of the agreement.
• The contract includes a 62% pay increase, faster wage growth, and improved benefits.
• It is retroactive to October 1, 2024, and will remain in effect until September 30, 2030.
• Ocean carriers will be allowed to introduce limited automation equipment, but job protection guarantees are in place.
• ILA President Harold Daggett described the $35 billion deal as historic.
• The agreement resolves a dispute over automation that led to a three-day strike in October, which cost the U.S. economy $2 billion.
• The ILA and USMX are set to formally sign the contract on March 11, 2025.

Terminal Updates

• Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• 2 days waiting time expected for APMT, 0.5 days waiting time at Maher Terminals, and up to 4.5 days at Port Liberty Terminal Bayonne.
• Average gate turn times are 41 / 70 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• APMT - new cranes arrived and are in process of being commissioned.
• Berth space will still be limited but 2 vessels will now be able to be worked simultaneously.

Norfolk:

• Waiting time for a berth is up to 1.2 days this week.
• Average gate turn times are 33 minutes for single transactions and 54 minutes for double transactions.
• One crane is out of service.
• However, it is expected to be back working next month.

Charleston Terminal:

• 0.75 days waiting time for Wando Welch Terminal and 3 hours waiting time for North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 21 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal and 18 minutes at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn time at Leatherman is 18 minutes.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth at the terminal is 3.5 days for class 1 and 7 days for class 2 vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 36 minutes for single transactions and 54 minutes for double transactions.
• Import dwell time is 3.8 days.
• Rail dwell time is 1.5 days.

Houston:

• Up to 1 day waiting time for vessel berthing at Barbours Cut Terminal and no waiting time at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Up to 24 hours delay for some vessels due to the channel being closed by fog.
• Average gate turn times at Barbours Cut Container Terminal are 35 minutes for single transactions and 56 minutes for double transactions.
• Average gate turn times at Bayport Container Terminal are 33 minutes for single transactions and 52 minutes for double transactions.
• Loaded import dwell is 3.8 days at Barbours Cut and 3.8 days at Bayport.

Oakland:

• Average import deliveries can take up to 5.4 days at TraPac and 4 days at OICT.
• Average gate turn times are 96 minutes at OICT and 78 minutes at TraPac.
• TraPac will be restricted to 1 crane on berth 25 effective February 22 through the end of month.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• 5 days waiting time at Husky and no waiting time at Washington United terminal at Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell are 3.3 days at Husky, 3.0 days at Washington United Terminal, and 3 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are as follows: 22 minutes for T18, 24 minutes for Washington United Terminal, and 57 minutes for Husky.
• Husky is offering continuous hoot gates. Next week’s gates will be March 3,4,5 and 6, 2025, for most transaction types.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.1 days.
• On-dock rail dwell is 6.1 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging at 5.4 / 7.2 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• The average terminal gate turn time is between 31-104 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Minneapolis / St. Paul – Constrained on 40’ chassis.
• Chicago – Deficit on 20’ chassis.
• Cleveland – Deficit on 20’ and 40’ Chassis
• Pittsburgh – Constrained on 40’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.