Freight market update - 29 November 2024

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• In Q3 2024, global container shipping set a new record, handling 47 million TEUs—a 2% increase from the previous peak reached during the pandemic in 2021.

• Container Trades Statistics (CTS) data reveals that global volumes for the first nine months of 2024 hit 136.7 million TEUs, marking a 6.3% year-over-year (y/y) growth and a 1.5% rise compared to 2021.

• The China-Mexico trade route experienced rapid growth in 2024, with shipping volumes increasing by 18.9% in the first nine months compared to 2023.

• Canada’s busiest ports have resumed operations following labor disputes that disrupted container flows.

• On 14 November, the Canada Industrial Relations Board ended union worker lockouts and ordered binding arbitration in the ongoing contract disputes.

• With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there is a possibility of imposing additional tariffs, including a 10–20% increase on all imports and a steep 60% on Chinese products.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• The China-Mexico trade route experienced rapid growth in 2024, with shipping volumes increasing by 18.9% in the first nine months compared to 2023, according to Xeneta.
• A record 135,724 TEUs were moved between the two countries in June 2024.
• This growth has resulted in significant rate volatility on the route.
• Spot rates on the China-Mexico West Coast route peaked six times in 2024, compared to only three peaks on the China-U.S. West Coast trade, noted Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand.
• Sand attributed the volatility to the China-Mexico route’s “immaturity” and its smaller shipping volumes.
• These factors make it more prone to pricing fluctuations than major fronthaul trades.
• Looking ahead to 2025, the trade route faces challenges such as limited infrastructure and the risk of bottlenecks due to rising import volumes.
• Geopolitical tensions may further disrupt trade, particularly with concerns over bypassing tariffs through Mexico into the U.S.
• Although spot rates have recently cooled, Sand cautions that volatility is likely to continue in 2025.
• In India, demand has softened due to the traditional slow season, leading to improved space availability.
• Despite this, congestion at key transshipment hubs, including Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang, continues to cause delays.
• Shortages of 20ft containers remain a challenge, particularly in Delhi and Nhava Sheva.
• Operational disruptions persist in Bangladesh, driven by strikes and protests from garment factory workers and transport workers.

Turkey → North America

• Canada’s busiest ports have resumed operations following labor disputes that disrupted container flows.
• On 14 November, the Canada Industrial Relations Board ended union worker lockouts and ordered binding arbitration in the ongoing contract disputes.
• Prior to this, port employers had locked out union workers on both coasts in response to strike actions.
• The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority stated that full recovery will take time and emphasized the potential long-term damage to Canada’s reputation as a reliable trade gateway.
• Since operations restarted, container dwell times at the Port of Vancouver average 7.7 days, improving but still higher than October’s 4.5-day average.
• Rail production at Vancouver is now at 54,000 feet per day, nearly matching the pre-disruption level of 57,000 feet per day.
• Container operations in Montreal resumed on 16 November at all four terminals.
• Over 5,000 TEUs remain at the terminals, with 55,000 linear feet of rail to manage.
• Officials from the Montreal Port Authority estimate that it could take several weeks to fully restore supply chain fluidity as vessels continue to arrive.
• With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there is a possibility of imposing additional tariffs, including a 10–20% increase on all imports and a steep 60% on Chinese products.
• These measures echo his previous trade policies, which reduced the share of Chinese imports in the U.S. from 40% in 2016 to 27% by 2021, while spot rates surged by 70% during the 2018 trade tensions.
• Southeast Asia, India, and Mexico are poised to benefit from redirected trade flows.
• Mexico, in particular, could become a critical gateway for U.S. imports, though potential legislative obstacles regarding cargo routed through Mexico remain a concern.
• Domestically, these trade shifts are likely to increase demand for rail, trucking, and warehousing, offering a boost to these sectors.
• U.S. retailers are proactively ramping up imports, with an additional 350,000 TEUs expected in November and December compared to October, aiming to mitigate potential trade disruptions.

North America → Turkey

• In Q3 2024, global container shipping set a new record, handling 47 million TEUs—a 2% increase from the previous peak reached during the pandemic in 2021, as per John McCown of Blue Alpha Capital.
• Container Trades Statistics (CTS) data reveals that global volumes for the first nine months of 2024 hit 136.7 million TEUs, marking a 6.3% year-over-year (y/y) growth and a 1.5% rise compared to 2021.
• Rising volumes and freight rates have driven substantial profit growth in the industry.
• Revenue per load in Q3 2024 surged by 52.5% compared to the same period last year.
• Spot rates, tracked by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), have more than doubled year-over-year.
• Carriers posted a $26.8 billion profit in Q3 2024, a 164% increase from Q2 and almost nine times higher than the same quarter in 2023.
• John McCown highlighted that these profits more than double the industry’s best pre-pandemic annual earnings.
• Drewry, a maritime consultancy, forecasts that container shipping will generate a $50 billion pre-tax profit in 2024, up from $28 billion in 2023.
• However, the sector faces ongoing challenges, including Red Sea route diversions and possible tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports and 10% to 20% on other imports.
• McCown cautioned that these tariffs, combined with the risk of a potential ILA dockworker strike in early 2025, could create significant disruptions for the industry.
• Despite these challenges, carriers remain optimistic about capacity management for 2025.
• Red Sea diversions are currently using available capacity, while strategies like slow steaming and scrapping vessels may help maintain a balance between supply and demand.

Terminal Updates

• Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• 3 days waiting time expected for APMT, 5 days at Maher Terminals, and up to 5 days at Port Liberty Terminal Bayonne.
• Average gate turn times are 39 / 69 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• Crane delivery at Port Liberty Terminal in Bayonne is complete.
• Berths 1 and 2 are now available for vessels.

Norfolk:

• Currently, most vessels berth on arrival.
• Bigger vessels wait approximately 2.5 days for a berth.
• Average gate turn times are 32 minutes for single transactions and 49 minutes for double transactions.
• One crane is out of service and is expected to be back working in week 49.
• The waiting time for bigger ships is up to 3 days
• The waiting time for smaller ships is up to 1.5 days.

Charleston Terminal:

• 3 days waiting time for Wando Welch Terminal and 6 hours for North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 19 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal and 18 minutes at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn time at Leatherman is 27 minutes.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth at the terminal is 1.5 days for class 1 vessels and 2.5 days for class 2.
• Average gate turn times are 32 minutes for single transactions and 51 minutes for double transactions.
• Import dwell time is 3 days.
• Export dwell time is 4.7 days.
• Rail dwell time is 1.2 days.

Houston:

• There is no waiting time for vessel berthing at Barbours Cut Terminal and at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times at Barbours Cut Container Terminal are 32 minutes for single transactions and 51 minutes for double transactions.
• Average gate turn times at Bayport Container Terminal are 40 minutes for single transactions and 61 minutes for double transactions.
• Loaded import dwell is 3.5 days at Barbours Cut and 3.3 days at Bayport.

Oakland:

• No waiting time at OICT and at TraPac.
• Average import deliveries can take up to 5.4 days at TraPac and 3.5 days at OICT.
• Average gate turn times are 78 minutes at OICT and 83 minutes at TraPac.
• All terminals will be closed on November 28, 2024.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• No waiting time at Husky and Washington United terminal at Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell are 3 days at Husky, 3 days at Washington United Terminal, and 3 to 5 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are as follows: 36 minutes for T18, 26 minutes for Washington United Terminal, and 54 minutes for Husky.
• T18 will be closed on Nov 22, 2024.
• All terminals closed on November 28, 2024.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.2 days.
• On-dock rail dwell time at Port of Los Angeles is 6.6 days.
• Import units on the street at Port of Los Angeles are averaging 3.6 days for 20 ft containers and 5.8 days for 40+ ft containers.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports are starting to go up to 5-9 days.
• The average terminal gate turn time is around 22-68 minutes, based on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Minneapolis / St. Paul - Constrained on 40’ chassis.
• Cleveland – Deficit on 40’ chassis.
• Louisville – Deficit on 20’ and 40’ Chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.