Freight market update - 26 February 2025

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• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global trade growth forecasts in the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

• According to Sea-Intelligence, the IMF now expects global trade growth to reach 3.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.

• The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced their busiest January as importers expedited cargo shipments ahead of expected tariff hikes on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico.

• The Port of Los Angeles handled 924,245 TEUs, an 8% increase from the previous year, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka.

• The Port of Long Beach also saw record-breaking January performance, moving 952,733 TEUs, a 41.4% surge from last year.

• Spot rates on the Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades are moving in different directions.

• The ILA strike ended quickly during China’s Golden Week holiday.

• USWC port volumes have increased by approximately 16-20% compared to the same period in 2023.

• Port congestion in Asia, USWC ports, and some USEC ports like Charleston is contributing to schedule unreliability and potential blank sailings.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• Spot rates on the Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades are moving in different directions.
• The ILA strike ended quickly during China’s Golden Week holiday.
• Rates in the U.S. East Coast have declined, while West Coast rates remain steady.
• Overall, demand and rate outlooks remain subdued.
• Rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean continue to decline, but at a slower pace.
• Carriers have announced a General Rate Increase for early November, with bookings improving compared to October.
• Carriers are attempting to stabilize rates ahead of 2025 contract negotiations.
• Monitoring the sustainability of rate hikes remains crucial.
• Trade volumes need to rise to prevent further rate declines, as November has limited blank sailings.
• The slack season has begun following China’s Golden Week holiday.
• Carriers have not announced winter capacity reductions.
• November capacity is projected to increase by 8% to both the West and East Coasts compared to October.
• Demand remains steady, possibly due to companies mitigating risks ahead of the January 15 East and Gulf Coast labor negotiations.
• While rates are gradually declining, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• Chinese ports, including major transshipment hubs like Shanghai and Ningbo, are facing significant congestion.
• Ports such as Shekou and Yantian are currently operating more smoothly.
• Carriers are experiencing increased demand for USWC services due to longer transit times via the Cape of Good Hope and cargo diversions from the recent ILA strike at USEC and USGC ports.
• USWC port volumes have increased by approximately 16-20% compared to the same period in 2023.
• Port congestion in Asia, USWC ports, and some USEC ports like Charleston is contributing to schedule unreliability and potential blank sailings.
• Major transshipment ports in Asia, including Busan, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Singapore, are facing delays of 14–21 days due to increased transshipment activity.
• Some carriers have shifted operations to alternative transshipment hubs in Malaysia, India, and Colombo, which has led to congestion at those ports as well.

Turkey → North America

• Despite a slight increase in traffic, shipping in the Red Sea remains uncertain, with most vessels still opting for longer routes around Africa due to security concerns.
• Although no merchant ships have been attacked this year, the threat persists as Yemen’s Houthis have warned they may resume attacks if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses.
• The European Union (EU) has extended its maritime security operation in the Red Sea until February 28, 2026.
• Over €17 million ($17.8 million) has been allocated to the naval operation, EUNAVFOR Aspides.
• Most shipowners continue to avoid the region, with CMA CGM being a notable exception.
• The ocean carrier has introduced a new service from India into the Red Sea, partnering with Saudi-based Folk Maritime and Oman-based Asyad Shipping.
• In the past 15 months, over 100 merchant ships have been attacked, leading to route diversions.
• These diversions have added two weeks to Asia-Europe sailing times and increased TEU-mile demand by 17.2% in 2024.
• Port congestion increased slightly over the past week, with European ports experiencing severe disruptions.
• All major North European ports are reporting high yard utilization, worsened by labor disputes in Rotterdam and Le Havre.
• Vessel waiting times remain high, reaching up to five days.
• Congestion is particularly severe in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Southampton, and Hamburg, impacting both mother vessel and feeder schedules.
• Some terminals have implemented emergency measures, including suspending cargo acceptance, to manage the situation.

North America → Turkey

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global trade growth forecasts in the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
• According to Sea-Intelligence, the IMF now expects global trade growth to reach 3.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.
• Both figures fall below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019.
• Trade growth in advanced economies is projected to slow down.
• The forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points.
• The 2026 projection has been revised to 2.5%, reflecting a drop of 0.3 percentage points.
• Despite these reductions, trade growth at the global level and within advanced economies is expected to improve in 2026.
• Meanwhile, trade growth in developing economies is expected to decline.
• Emerging economies are projected to see a 5% growth rate in 2025, which is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2026.
• Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, expressed concern over this decline.
• “Trade growth from Asia to North America and Europe played a major role in container growth in 2024, so a downward revision for 2025 and 2026 is not encouraging news.”
• Murphy also pointed to China’s economic slowdown as a key concern.
• “China’s economic output was 5.2% in 2023, dropped to 4.8% in 2024, and is forecasted to decline further to 4.5% by 2026.”
• Several leading advanced economies are also expected to face slower economic growth heading into 2026.
• The U.S. economy, in particular, is predicted to experience a sharp slowdown, with growth falling from 2.7% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026.”
• The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experienced their busiest January as importers expedited cargo shipments ahead of expected tariff hikes on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico.
• The Port of Los Angeles handled 924,245 TEUs, an 8% increase from the previous year, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka.
• Import volumes rose 9.5% to 483,831 TEUs, while exports declined by 10.5% year-over-year.
• The port also processed 327,143 empty containers, reflecting a 14% increase from the prior year.
• Seroka noted that the rise in empty container movements “typically signals more incoming cargo in the coming weeks and months.”
• The Port of Long Beach also saw record-breaking January performance, moving 952,733 TEUs, a 41.4% surge from last year.
• Imports climbed 45% to 471,649 TEUs, while exports increased by 14% to 98,655 TEUs.
• The movement of empty containers also saw a sharp rise, up 45.9% to 382,430 TEUs.
• Looking ahead, Seroka anticipates a slowdown in February due to the Lunar New Year but expects strong cargo volumes in the months that follow.
• He mentioned that some importers will continue front-loading shipments in the short term.
• However, he cautioned that trade activity may decline in the latter half of the year due to the high volume of cargo already moved.

Terminal Updates

• Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• 2.5 days waiting time expected for APMT, 0.5 days waiting time at Maher Terminals, and up to 4.5 days at Port Liberty Terminal Bayonne.
• Average gate turn times are 47 / 76 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• APMT - new cranes arrived and are in process of being commissioned.
• Berth space will still be limited but 2 vessels will now be able to be worked simultaneously.

Norfolk:

• Waiting time for a berth is up to 1 day this week.
• Average gate turn times are 30 minutes for single transactions and 47 minutes for double transactions.
• One crane is out of service.
• However, it is expected to be back working next month.

Charleston Terminal:

• 2 days waiting time for Wando Welch Terminal and no waiting time for North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 21 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal and 23 minutes at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn time at Leatherman is 15 minutes.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth at the terminal is 5 days for class 1 and class 2 vessels.
• Fog continues to impact vessel operations from January 31st.
• Average gate turn times are 34 minutes for single transactions and 52 minutes for double transactions.
• Import dwell time is 3.3 days.
• Rail dwell time is 1 day.

Houston:

• Up to 2 days waiting time for vessel berthing at Barbours Cut Terminal and at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times at Barbours Cut Container Terminal are 32 minutes for single transactions and 53 minutes for double transactions.
• Average gate turn times at Bayport Container Terminal are 30 minutes for single transactions and 49 minutes for double transactions.
• Loaded import dwell is 3.9 days at Barbours Cut and 3.8 days at Bayport.

Oakland:

• Average import deliveries can take up to 4.3 days at TraPac and 4 days at OICT.
• TraPac has 1900 units out of stock and not available for pick up.
• They are seeing a lot of appointments not being fully used.
• Average gate turn times are 78 minutes at OICT and 71 minutes at TraPac.
• The Port of Oakland has started a bollard and fender replacement project at OICT.
• The Port of Oakland has started a bollard and fender replacement project at OICT, starting with Berth 55 through Berth 59.
• The project is expected to finish at the end of February 2025.
• Berths 55, 56, 57 and 58 are now complete, work has moved to Berth 59.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• 6 days waiting time at Husky and no waiting time at Washington United terminal at Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell are 3.7 days at Husky, 1.0 days at Washington United Terminal, and 3 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are as follows: 32 minutes for T18, 24 minutes for Washington United Terminal, and 69 minutes for Husky.
• Washington United Terminal and T18 will be closed on February 17, 2025, for President’s Day.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.1 days.
• On-dock rail dwell is 6.7 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging at 5.7 / 7.0 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• The average terminal gate turn time is between 23-61 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Chicago – Deficit on 20’ chassis.
• St. Louis – Deficit on 40’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.