Freight market update - 12 March 2025

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• Panelists at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM25 conference warned that the container market is facing a downturn in 2025.

• Fleet capacity has increased by 33%, while trade growth was only 9% in 2024.

• Asia-North America trade volumes grew by 28% from 2019 to 2024.

• In contrast, North America-Asia trade declined by 15%.

• Platts reported that Eastbound Trans-Pacific spot rates to the U.S. West Coast have already dropped by 53% this year.

• At TPM25, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, stated that the container market remains strong despite declining spot rates on major East-West routes.

• When Suez transits resume, European retailers may adjust supply chains, potentially reducing demand on Asia-Europe routes by 10%.

• Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for March 6, 2025, dropped by 3% per 40ft container.

• The Pacific trade saw a sharp 9% decline, marking the lowest rate since January 2024.

• MSC has withdrawn its Trans-Pacific Mustang service and is reallocating its largest 24,000 TEU vessels to the Med and West Africa routes.

• The Gemini Cooperation aims to achieve 90% performance levels but will likely need three full cycles to do so.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• Global container freight demand remains weak, continuing to push rates downward.
• Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for March 6, 2025, dropped by 3% per 40ft container.
• The Pacific trade saw a sharp 9% decline, marking the lowest rate since January 2024.
• The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell by another 5% week-over-week on March 7.
• Linerlytica reports that carriers are reducing capacity on key routes in response to weak demand.
• MSC has withdrawn its Trans-Pacific Mustang service and is reallocating its largest 24,000 TEU vessels to the Med and West Africa routes.
• The OCEAN Alliance has postponed a planned Asia-North Europe service.
• The Premier Alliance is likely to delay two Pacific routes scheduled for May.
• MDS Transmodal data shows that the biggest capacity reduction is on the Trans-Pacific trade.
• Capacity on this route fell by 5% compared to February but remains 16% higher than last year.
• On Asia-Europe routes, the capacity reduction is smaller, at just 2% compared to February.
• Darron Wadey, a consultant at Dynaliners, highlighted the persistent overcapacity in the market.
• Between 2020 and 2024, shipping capacity grew by over 30%, while global cargo volumes rose by less than 10%.
• While widespread service cuts haven’t happened yet, Wadey believes blanked sailings may increase.
• He warned that overcapacity, combined with global trade tariffs, could further suppress cargo movements.
• Early March saw rate reductions, with further softening expected later in the month.
• Despite this, long-term contracts remain stable.
• Demand is gradually recovering, with capacity stabilizing above 90%.
• MSC is revising two of its US West Coast services, CHINOOK and ORIENT, to enhance capacity and port coverage.
• CHINOOK will expand from eight to 12 port calls.
• The updated route will now include Ningbo and cover Vung Tao, Haiphong, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai, Qingdao, Busan, Seattle, Prince Rupert, and Vancouver.
• ORIENT is adding Busan and Portland to its rotation.
• The adjusted route will include Qingdao, Ningbo, Shanghai, Busan, Long Beach, Oakland, and Portland.
• Ocean freight rate declines between the Indian Subcontinent and Europe have mostly stabilized.
• The anticipated General Rate Increase (GRI) did not materialize but helped slow the downward trend.
• A new GRI has been announced for later in March.
• Peak season demand remains weak, mainly due to poor grape harvests reducing export volumes.
• Equipment shortages continue, particularly for 20ft containers at inland container depots.
• Congestion in Colombo has eased, leading to improved transit times and fewer delays.

Turkey → North America

• At TPM25, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, stated that the container market remains strong despite declining spot rates on major East-West routes.
• He emphasized that demand is still high, with global container volumes growing 6% year-over-year.
• Jensen acknowledged that supply stability has been disrupted as carriers adjust to new networks and alliances.
• He believes the current downturn is temporary, assuming there is no recession and no immediate return to Suez Canal transits.
• He cautioned against interpreting low rates as a sign of structural market weakness.
• If the Suez Canal reopens, Jensen expects a rapid and chaotic transition.
• He predicted that this could lead to congestion in European ports and capacity challenges.
• He warned that equipment shortages in Asia could follow two to three months later.
• As a result, shippers should prepare for additional surcharges.
• Jensen anticipates a sharp drop in freight rates once congestion and shortages stabilize.
• He noted that while the global fleet expanded by 11% last year, demand only grew by 6%, making overcapacity inevitable.
• When Suez transits resume, European retailers may adjust supply chains, potentially reducing demand on Asia-Europe routes by 10%.
• The 2025 TPM Conference in Long Beach, California, brought industry leaders together to discuss global trade and logistics challenges.
• A major topic was the proposed U.S. port tax on China-built containerships.
• This tax could add $1,000 per TEU to shipping costs, potentially costing the industry $20 billion.
• Shippers relying on Transpacific and Transatlantic trade lanes will see significant cost increases.
• Port congestion remains a key issue, with infrastructure investments seen as critical for efficiency.
• The Gemini Cooperation aims to achieve 90% performance levels but will likely need three full cycles to do so.
• Carriers remain ready to deploy blank sailings as needed to manage capacity and ensure schedule reliability.
• A gradual shift back to the Suez Canal is under discussion after a long period of avoidance.
• Shipping lines must carefully manage the transition to prevent market volatility.
• The shift is expected to cause temporary congestion, reduced demand for Europe-bound cargo, and rate fluctuations.
• Capacity withdrawals may continue to stabilize prices in the coming quarters.
• In 2025, carriers will prioritize network efficiency and market share growth.
• With market uncertainty, alliances may focus on offering reliability as a competitive advantage.

North America → Turkey

• Panelists at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM25 conference warned that the container market is facing a downturn in 2025.
• They cautioned that the decline could be worse than previous downturns.
• Parash Jain, the global head of Transport and Logistics Research at HSBC, stated that the market’s decline has already begun.
• Jain identified several key factors contributing to the downward trend.
• One major issue is oversupply in the market.
• Fleet capacity has increased by 33%, while trade growth was only 9% in 2024.
• Some excess capacity has been absorbed by disruptions, but rates could decline further if these disruptions ease.
• Another risk is uneven demand across trade routes.
• Asia-North America trade volumes grew by 28% from 2019 to 2024.
• In contrast, North America-Asia trade declined by 15%.
• Europe-Asia trade saw an even sharper decline of 23%.
• Consumer demand is weakening, adding to market concerns.
• Rising tariffs could worsen the situation further.
• Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global, warned that aggressive trade policies could drive inflation higher.
• Higher inflation may put additional pressure on consumer spending.
• Rogers noted that inflationary effects could impact consumer spending more severely than in previous downturns.
• A U.S. proposal to tax Chinese shipping could cause further trade disruptions as early as April.
• Platts reported that Eastbound Trans-Pacific spot rates to the U.S. West Coast have already dropped by 53% this year.

Terminal Updates

• Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• 2.0 days waiting time expected for APMT, 0.5 days waiting time at Maher Terminals, and up to 4.0 days at Port Liberty Terminal Bayonne.
• Average gate turn times are 49 / 76 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• APMT - new cranes arrived and are in process of being commissioned.
• Berth space will still be limited but 2 vessels will now be able to be worked simultaneously.

Norfolk:

• Waiting time for a berth is up to 2 days this week.
• Average gate turn times are 33 minutes for single transactions and 54 minutes for double transactions.
• One crane is out of service.
• However, it is expected to be back working next month.

Charleston Terminal:

• 1 day waiting time for Wando Welch Terminal and 6 hours waiting time for North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 21 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal and 19 minutes at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn time at Leatherman is 18 minutes.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth at the terminal is 3.7 days for class 1 and 5.2 days for class 2 vessels.
• Average gate turn times are 37 minutes for single transactions and 56 minutes for double transactions.
• Import dwell time is 3.9 days.
• Rail dwell time is 1.3 days.

Houston:

• Up to 2.5 days waiting time for vessel berthing at Barbours Cut Terminal and no waiting time at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Up to 24 hours delay for some vessels due to the channel being closed by fog.
• Average gate turn times at Barbours Cut Container Terminal are 34 minutes for single transactions and 53 minutes for double transactions.
• Average gate turn times at Bayport Container Terminal are 34 minutes for single transactions and 57 minutes for double transactions.
• Loaded import dwell is 3.8 days at Barbours Cut and 3.7 days at Bayport.

Oakland:

• Average import deliveries can take up to 4.3 days at TraPac and 4 days at OICT.
• Average gate turn times are 96 minutes at OICT and 62 minutes at TraPac.
• TraPac will be restricted to 1 crane on berth 25 effective February 22 through the end of month.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• 3 days waiting time at Husky and no waiting time at Washington United terminal at Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell are 2.8 days at Husky, 1.8 days at Washington United Terminal, and 3 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are as follows: 27 minutes for T18, 28 minutes for Washington United Terminal, and 92 minutes for Husky.
• Husky is offering continuous hoot gates. Next week’s gates will be March 10,11,12 and 13, 2025, for most transaction types.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.0 days.
• On-dock rail dwell is 5.9 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging at 4.9 / 6.6 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• The average terminal gate turn time is between 26-83 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Minneapolis / St. Paul – Constrained on 40’ chassis.
• Chicago – Constrained on 20’ chassis.
• Cleveland – Deficit on 40’ chassis.
• Nashville – Constrained on 40’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.