Freight market update - 2 January 2025

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• The U.S. East Coast may face significant disruptions in early 2025 due to a potential strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) amid unresolved contract negotiations.

• Container fleet capacity in the Transpacific (TP) trade has increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

• Carriers anticipate a rise in demand in early January with the onset of the traditional peak season, and shippers are advised to confirm bookings early to avoid potential space constraints.

• The Portuguese Navy and Turkish defense technology company STM have signed agreements for the construction of two new replenishment vessels.

• The Taiwan Strait’s weather is far more hostile than that of the eastern Mediterranean, complicating any efforts to deliver personnel, equipment, and supplies.

• The US Department of Defense allocated $230 million for the Trident Pier at Gaza.

Read on for more in-depth updates.

Asia → North America

US/CA

Transpacific Trends and Market Updates

• Container fleet capacity in the Transpacific (TP) trade has increased by 4.2% year-on-year.
• MSC plans to launch its standalone East-West network, 'Mustang,' in 2025, connecting key hubs such as Xiamen, Ningbo, Shanghai, Busan, Seattle, Vancouver, and Portland.
• In September, Maersk and HPL announced the addition of a TP7/WC5 loop, enhancing service coverage to include Busan, Ningbo, Los Angeles, and Yokohama.

Shanghai (SHA)

• Rates remain elevated due to a significant reduction in space availability.
• Early bookings are necessary to secure capacity.

Ningbo (NGB)

• Rates are decreasing to most US destinations, but space remains tight on key routes.
• It is recommended to book space one week in advance.

North China (TSN/DLC/PEK/TAO)

• Tianjin (TSN): Rates are increasing as demand stays high, with bookings needing to be secured 5-6 days in advance.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Most airlines have raised rates this week. Volume cargo requires 7-10 days' notice before booking, with a possibility of flight splits.
• Qingdao (TAO): Space to the USA is extremely tight, with rates unchanged from last week to most US airports.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

• Guangzhou (CAN): The market remains active with constrained space availability. Rate stability is expected in the coming days.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Space is tight, and rates are holding firm on both East and West Coast routes.
• Xiamen (XMN): Rates are stable, but final pricing is determined on a case-by-case basis.

Rates and Status

• Rates are stable after recent volatility, supported by increased carrier allocations.
• The threat of strikes at Indian ports has been resolved with the official approval of a wage and pension contract agreement, easing concerns about disruptions to cargo flow from major ports.
• Transshipment delays at Colombo persist due to adverse weather and congestion, continuing to impact schedules.
• Carriers anticipate a rise in demand in early January with the onset of the traditional peak season, and shippers are advised to confirm bookings early to avoid potential space constraints.

Turkey → North America

• The Portuguese Navy and Turkish defense technology company STM have signed agreements for the construction of two new replenishment vessels.

These vessels, classified as auxiliary oiler replenisher and logistics ships, will have the following specifications:

• Length Overall (LOA): 137 meters.
• Displacement: 11,000 tonnes.
• Top speed: 18 knots.
• Range: 14,000 nautical miles at a cruising speed of 14 knots.
• Crew capacity: 100 crewmembers and additional personnel.
• The vessels will feature a modular design, enabling the installation of additional sensor and weapon systems, including defenses against airborne threats.

They will support deployed Portuguese Navy ships by transporting:

• Fuel, fresh water, food, ammunition, and other supplies.
• Six 20-foot containers.
• Up to 20 light armored vehicles.
• Aviation facilities onboard will accommodate a helicopter or a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle.
• The ships are also designed for secondary missions such as humanitarian assistance and search and rescue (SAR) operations.

North America → Turkey

• The U.S. East Coast may face significant disruptions in early 2025 due to a potential strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) amid unresolved contract negotiations.
• Despite apparent agreement on pay raises in October, reports indicate that key issues remain unresolved.
• A major point of contention is the unclear stance on automation, which has created challenges for negotiators and heightened concerns over outdated U.S. infrastructure.
• Modernizing infrastructure is emerging as a potential bargaining point in the broader negotiation narrative.
• A potential strike could disrupt shipping flows through major East Coast gateways, but there are currently no signs of shippers front-loading cargo in anticipation.
• Last month, the United States disassembled and removed the floating pier it had assembled at a Gaza beach for aid deliveries.
• Heavy seas caused significant damage to the pier:
• Although designed to be assembled in hours, this pier took almost a month to set up.
• Once operational, waves repeatedly damaged it, requiring it to be pulled away from the beach to avoid destruction.
• On one occasion, it had to be towed to a port for repairs.
• Waves also drove ashore boats that were servicing the pier.
• The challenges faced by this pier underscore the logistical difficulties China would encounter in attempting an invasion of Taiwan.
• The Taiwan Strait’s weather is far more hostile than that of the eastern Mediterranean, complicating any efforts to deliver personnel, equipment, and supplies.
• Defenders would likely attack China’s piers, and most potential unloading zones are overlooked by terrain that would turn them into kill zones.

Constructing and deploying a floating pier is a complex and resource-intensive task:

• The US Department of Defense allocated $230 million for the Trident Pier at Gaza.
• It was operational for only 20 days and handled just 9,000 tonnes of supplies.
• Logistics, particularly joint logistics over the shore (JLOTS), faces countless challenges and is inherently harder than anticipated.
• A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would necessitate simultaneous construction of improvised piers at multiple locations, a task far exceeding any logistical operation China’s navy has previously undertaken.
• Even optimistic estimates suggest an invasion force of 300,000 personnel, which is double the size of the international forces deployed in Afghanistan at the height of the global war on terror.

Terminal Updates

• Vessels heading to North America via the North Atlantic Sea are expected to have a change in schedule due to severe weather conditions.

New York:

• 2.5 days waiting time expected for APMT, no waiting time at Maher Terminals, and up to 5.5 days at Port Liberty Terminal Bayonne.
• Average gate turn times are 40 / 67 minutes for single and double transactions respectively.
• APMT - new cranes arrived and are in process of being commissioned.
• Berth space will still be limited but 2 vessels will now be able to be worked simultaneously.

Norfolk:

• Waiting time for a berth is up to 1.3 days this week.
• Average gate turn times are 36 minutes for single transactions and 51 minutes for double transactions.
• One crane is out of service.
• However, it is expected to be back working next month.

Charleston Terminal:

• 24 hours waiting time for Wando Welch Terminal and 6 hours for North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn times are 19 minutes at Wando Welch Terminal and 21 minutes at North Charleston Terminal.
• Average truck turn time at Leatherman is 23 minutes.

Savannah:

• The average waiting time for vessel berth at the terminal is 2 days for class 1 vessels and 2.3 days for class 2.
• Average gate turn times are 38 minutes for single transactions and 53 minutes for double transactions.
• Import dwell time is 2.7 days.
• Rail dwell time is 1.2 days.

Houston:

• Up to 0.5 days waiting time for vessel berthing at Barbours Cut Terminal and no waiting time at Bayport Container Terminal.
• Average gate turn times at Barbours Cut Container Terminal are 34 minutes for single transactions and 55 minutes for double transactions.
• Average gate turn times at Bayport Container Terminal are 28 minutes for single transactions and 45 minutes for double transactions.
• Loaded import dwell is 3.6 days at Barbours Cut and 3.6 days at Bayport.

Oakland:

• 2 days waiting time for Oakland Int’l Container Terminal (OICT) and no waiting time at TraPac.
• Average import deliveries can take up to 5.3 days at TraPac and 3.5 days at OICT.
• Average gate turn times are 78 minutes at OICT and 84 minutes at TraPac.
• The Port of Oakland has started a bollard and fender replacement project at OICT.
• The Port of Oakland has started a bollard and fender replacement project at OICT, starting with Berth 55 through Berth 59.
• Project expected to finish at the end of February 2025.
• Berths 55, 56 and 57 are now complete, work has moved to Berth 58.
• OICT will be closed December 24, 25 and 31, 2024 and January 1, 2025.
• TraPac will close at 3 pm on December 24 and 31, 2024.
• It will be closed all day December 25, 2024, and January 1, 2025.

Seattle-Tacoma:

• 6.5 days waiting time at Husky and 1 day at Washington United terminal at Tacoma.
• No waiting time in Seattle.
• Import rail dwell are 4 days at Husky, 4.2 days at Washington United Terminal, and 1 to 3 days at T18.
• The average gate turn times are as follows: 44 minutes for T18, 37 minutes for Washington United Terminal, and 70 minutes for Husky.
• T18 will be closed on Dec 20 and 24 2024.
• Husky and Washington United Terminal will close at 15:00 hrs. on December 24 and 31 ,2024.
• All terminals will be closed on 25, 2024.

Los Angeles/Long Beach:

• Port of Los Angeles dwell time for local import cargo is 3.2 days.
• On-dock rail dwell is 4.4 days.
• Import units on the street are averaging at 4.1 / 6.8 days for 20 ft and 40+ ft containers respectively.
• Port of Long Beach dwell times for local imports remain at 4-8 days.
• The average terminal gate turn time is between 22-72 minutes, depending on the terminal.

Chassis Pools

All pools are operating as normal except:

• Minneapolis / St. Paul - Constrained on a 40' chassis.
• Chicago – Constrained on 20’ and 40’ chassis.
• Cleveland - Constrained on 40’ chassis.

Intermodal Operations

Truck power can be secured within 1-3 days for the majority of locations, including marine terminals, rail ramps, and depots.

Port Status

Final Thoughts

In light of the latest updates and trends, the market is currently in the course of showing robust performance and is equipped with ample capacity and resources. Individuals and businesses involved in import/export activities must stay well-informed about market dynamics and strategies to make informed decisions.

To ensure a smooth and hassle-free experience with your import/export operations, it is recommended to seek guidance from industry experts. Taking proactive measures and staying proactive in your approach will help you navigate the market effectively. We greatly appreciate your continued readership and encourage you to subscribe to our weekly market updates to stay abreast of the latest developments and insights.